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The black swan effect in sports betting

black swan effect

The world of sports is not without amazing events. A good bettor always strives to predict the outcome of sporting events. It is easy to guess the logical outcome, but how about predicting a sensation? There is also such a betting strategy, its name is “Black Swan”.

How to bet on the Black Swan?

Bets should be treated with all responsibility. You can’t put it anywhere. Always use the services of a reliable, licensed bookmaker. If you have not yet found your right partner in this business, we recommend that you contact Bet And You. A small BetAndYou review. This is a time-tested bookmaker. The online service is extremely easy to use.

Its user-friendly interface will be appreciated by both beginners and advanced bettors. For people with a limited amount of free time, BetAndYou India has developed a mobile application. It is available for owners of iOS and Android systems. The bookmaker welcomes all newcomers with a good welcome bonus, which will provide a quick start in betting.

Where did the term “Black Swan” come from?

The name of the person who applied this term is Nassim Talleb. This term was used in 2007 in relation to unpredictable political events that shocked the whole world. Talleb is an American writer and economist. He also studies the impact of random and unpredictable events on the global economy. It took quite a bit of time and this term began to be applied to sporting events too. 

What is “Black Swan” for bettors?

One of the surest ways to minimize risk in betting is to use mathematics. The “black swan” is one of the mathematical theories. It gives clues about events that are difficult to predict. If we talk about phenomena in economics and politics, then the concept of “black swan” has a negative meaning. The fact is that any unpredictable changes in the system rarely benefit it. The great achievements of mankind, as a rule, occur gradually and expectedly. 

When it comes to sports, the concept of “black swan” is rather neutral. In sports, “black swans” are commonly referred to as victories by outsiders that cannot be called obvious. It is rather difficult to predict such results, after all, most of the “experts” most often assure before the match that the team that is confidently holding the leader in the ratings must definitely win.

What can portend the victory of an outsider?

In any sport where there are doubts about the motivation of the strongest player in the first place, it makes sense to take a risk and bet on the underdog. Today, with the help of progressive technologies, it is quite easy to track patterns in particular before major tournaments. 

The defeat of the best athletes by the worst in the period leading up to major tournaments is easy to explain. The fact is that recognized champions will not take risks, they want to avoid possible injuries and be in their best shape during more important competitions.

A good time to rationally use the “black swan” strategy is the week following a major sporting event. Suppose that the athlete gave it his all and performed well on it. This makes it quite likely that he will have in less important competitions:

  • poor condition and overwork;
  • underestimation of the opponent;
  • lack of motivation.

Is this strategy worth it?

In predicting a sporting event, the use of such a strategy has certain risks. However, it is anyway a good way to earn money. The main thing is not to bet most of your bank. It is better to bet on the “black swan” longer, operating with small amounts, but more often win thanks to your knowledge and painstaking analytical work.

This strategy is quite interesting and it can bring income. But, if you are superficially interested in the sports discipline you are betting on, then it is better not to risk it. Analytics and a clear head should always be present.

Useful Tips for Betting Against Favorites

⦿ “Black swans” are always a shocking event for the so-called “experts” and local “analysts”, because few people are able to predict the defeat of the favorite. Therefore, the odds will be incredible and that is why such bets are especially profitable.

⦿ The favorite may fail by chance and only once, but it is worth paying attention to the fact that this may also indicate the beginning of his decline as an athlete.

⦿ After each such case, where you watch the defeat of the best, it is worth paying special attention to analyzing what happened, even if you do not use the “black swan” strategy. After all, this can be used to advantage in making decisions about future rates.

Moments like this are always worth paying attention to. Don’t be one of those cappers who place bets only on the basis of their famous player or team. Careful study of statistics and current events before the match does not give you a 100% guarantee.

In order not to spoil your impression of a sweet victory due to problems with the bookmaker, do not neglect our recommendation and use the services of BetAndYou. An important note, the black swan strategy is not suitable for every sport. This strategy in team sports will not be as successful, due to the fact that there is always an opportunity to make a substitution.

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